Task Description
In the FinSurvival Challenge, the primary objective is time-to-event prediction. This means participants will build models to accurately predict how long it takes from an index event (e.g., a loan being issued) until a specific outcome event occurs (e.g., the loan is repaid or liquidated). The primary evaluation metric for this task is the Concordance Index (C-index), where a score of 0.5 indicates random guessing and 1.0 represents perfect prediction.
We expect participants to develop models that can outperform existing benchmarks, particularly the FinSurvival benchmark, by leveraging advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques to capture the complex, non-linear relationships present in real-world DeFi transaction data.
C-index
Evaluation Metric
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Dataset
The FinSurvival benchmark consists of 16 time-to-event prediction tasks based on user transactions on the Aave V3 Ethereum protocol. The released benchmark includes over 21.8 million records and 90 engineered features, capturing user behavior, market dynamics, and temporal patterns from March 12, 2022 to July 2, 2024.
Competition Tasks
Participants must create models for 16 unique event transitions:
- Borrow → Deposit, Repay, Withdraw, Liquidated
- Deposit → Borrow, Repay, Withdraw, Liquidated
- Repay → Borrow, Deposit, Withdraw, Liquidated
- Withdraw → Borrow, Deposit, Repay, Liquidated
Each dataset record includes the following:
- Index and outcome events: Transaction types initiating and ending a survival interval (e.g.,
borrow → repay).
- Time-to-event information: Duration in seconds and censoring indicator.
- 90 features: Including user-specific histories, market-level summaries, and engineered time representations (e.g., cyclic encodings of date/time).
